More sample networks to follow.
Part 3 - Swimming Champs Meet Simulation
Now we build on the strategies described in Part 1 and the tapering in Part 2 to create a simulation of the decisions made by coaches.
We can use team tapering to simulate the possible changes in the meet due to different swimmer-event assignments. We will create an "updated" psych sheet times that estimates how each swimmer would swim at the championship meet. For swimmers in the meet, of course we use their times in the meet. The team tapering factors come in play to "fill in" the times for swimmers who did not swim at the championship meet. Using this updated psych sheet, selecting the swimmers who actually scored in the meet and assigning them to their events, we replicate the results of the individual events of the meet.
Next, Champs Advisor optimizes event assignments, following the strategies developed in Part 2. Notice that the results are numerically significantly different than those using psych sheet times, but the trends are the same.
Compared with the original psych sheet, Team A swam faster than Team B, as we saw in the tapering factors from Part 2. Tapering factors alone don't tell the whole story, and the detailed simulation is required to evaluate the impact of individual performances. And Champs only deals with individual swimming events: diving and relays are not included. In the actual championship meet, Team B performed significantly better than Team A on diving and relays but not enough to change the outcome of the meet.
We can reverse the process of iterating the strategies by starting and ending with Team B.
The smallest margin of the scenarios where Team A picks last is 121; the largest margin where Team B picks last is 117. We expect the "Best Play" outcome to be between these two margins. If we use the actual assignments in the meet, the simulation produces a margin of 118, suggesting that both Team A and Team B selected events for their swimmers equally well.
In the next installment, we'll replace the default strategy with the actual assignments for the meet and explore how different decisions by each coach affect the outcome.